BLACK MARKET MAY ACCOUNT FOR 12% OF MOLDOVA’S CIGARETTE MARKET THIS YEAR – EXPERT VEACESLAV IONITA

This year, the share of the illegal tobacco market in Moldova may double, predicts expert Veaceslav Ionita of the “Viitorul” [“Future”] Institute of Development and Social Initiatives (IDIS Viitorul). He believes that the share of the black market of cigarettes may exceed 12% in 2023.

The expert came to this conclusion based on data obtained from three market studies, as well as on interviews with business entities in the localities and an analysis of tax revenues to the State Budget.

In 2022, the share of illicit sales of tobacco products accounted for 6.9%, which was almost twice as high as the black market figures for 2021, when they were estimated at 3.7%.

Veaceslav Ionita predicts losses of the State Budget due to trade in counterfeit tobacco products on the market at approximately 615 million lei.

He drew attention to the fact that increasing excise duties on tobacco products increases economic interest in illegal trading in counterfeit tobacco products. With each increase in excise duties on tobacco products, which Moldova must gradually raise to the level in EU countries, the attractiveness for trade in counterfeit tobacco products also increases.